Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 0.023522 0.026736 0.030242 0.034352 0.039043 0.044232 0.050413
2025-02-23 0.018334 0.022687 0.027863 0.034483 0.042741 0.052725 0.065745
2025-03-02 0.015253 0.019982 0.025942 0.034027 0.044741 0.058504 0.077605
2025-03-09 0.013517 0.018555 0.025214 0.034695 0.047905 0.065748 0.091827
2025-03-16 0.011864 0.016950 0.023954 0.034350 0.049474 0.070810 0.103428
2025-03-23 0.010968 0.016247 0.023789 0.035414 0.053004 0.078818 0.119940
2025-03-30 0.009646 0.014754 0.022295 0.034316 0.053154 0.081798 0.129140
2025-04-06 0.008696 0.013701 0.021318 0.033848 0.054133 0.086014 0.140556
2025-04-13 0.007703 0.012472 0.019935 0.032570 0.053650 0.087806 0.148139
2025-04-20 0.007337 0.012200 0.020021 0.033641 0.057046 0.096128 0.167372
2025-04-27 0.006965 0.011876 0.019981 0.034476 0.060094 0.104107 0.186785
2025-05-04 0.006667 0.011643 0.020062 0.035509 0.063552 0.113072 0.208823
2025-05-11 0.006168 0.011028 0.019451 0.035299 0.064838 0.118428 0.225042
2025-05-18 0.005776 0.010568 0.019071 0.035469 0.066840 0.125284 0.244877
2025-05-25 0.005333 0.009971 0.018386 0.034998 0.067567 0.129792 0.260571
2025-06-01 0.005091 0.009724 0.018321 0.035686 0.070574 0.138926 0.286461
2025-06-08 0.004738 0.009234 0.017750 0.035330 0.071472 0.143972 0.304445
2025-06-15 0.004589 0.009127 0.017904 0.036426 0.075399 0.155471 0.337289
2025-06-22 0.004203 0.008513 0.017009 0.035296 0.074592 0.157098 0.348839
2025-06-29 0.003922 0.008087 0.016452 0.034814 0.075100 0.161522 0.367032
2025-07-06 0.003581 0.007511 0.015542 0.033498 0.073672 0.161613 0.375324
2025-07-13 0.003499 0.007471 0.015741 0.034601 0.077691 0.174086 0.413867
2025-07-20 0.003397 0.007381 0.015828 0.035461 0.081238 0.185824 0.451941